Smell that? It's not the stench of the fire escape at a Roosters hotel. It's the smell of finals footy. September has arrived, and while half the competition are downing their 20th rum-and-coke of the day, the top eight are about to get serious.
After picking the difficult Friday night contests like a dirty nose, things went a little pear-shaped for The Adjudicator in round 26. In saying that, five from eight in a frantic final round of the season isn’t too bad.
I picked the Roosters by 16 and things were looking up when the Chooks led 16-0 after 34 minutes. But, much like Brett Seymour on a big night out, the Bondi boys collapsed in a heap a little early and the Cowboys ran through them. The Sharkies also cost me by not playing the full 80 minutes, but playing for 79 minutes and 56 seconds is a pretty good effort. And if anyone predicted that Manly would beat the Titans by 34 points, a date with Mrs Adjudicator and a box of cask wine is all yours.
But enough of this regular season nonsense because the 'real' footy has arrived. The Adjudicator has to deal only with four games this week, which is just as well as I've been diagnosed with a severe case of finals fever. Here's the early verdict for week one.
Email your thoughts to
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
.
Melbourne Storm v Manly, Friday 7.45pm (EST), Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
The Adjudicator says: "Man, do these two have a history. The Storm broke Manly hearts in 2007, only for the Eagles to return the favour a year later. In between those two grand finals, they have had many titanic struggles, including a heart stopper at Olympic Park in round 24. The Adjudicator put his neck on the line and tipped the unfancied Sea Eagles on that occasion and, if I were to follow the old mantra of "if it aint broke, don’t fix it", I’d tip them again. But I won’t. It’s not that Manly are broke, but there’s one factor that tips this one in the Storm’s favour. Can you guess what it is? It starts with G and ends in reg Inglis. Melbourne will come out on top in the contest of "our disgraced star is better than yours" and win by two."
Agree/disagree with The Adjudicator? Tell him, in 100 words or fewer, why your team will win this match. Email The Adjudicator, including your full name and where you're from.
LATEST COMMENTS FROM FANS
Manly Fan The Missing Hairline says: "Ah Mr A you don't have to be a rocket sientist to know that the Storms weak point is their 5/8 named after a frail little bird "Finch" he will be dropping more than eggs once Foran softens him up with his defence then killer will take over and lay some deft passes to Choco to use him as a spead bump - Manly by 17 (Oxs 1st half Field goal) Oh by the way Greg who????"
Manly fan Dandy says: "Last week many punters disbelief that Manly able to beat Titan by more than 24 point except for myself (see my comment in The Adjudicator round 26). I am happy to see B.Stewart progression even though he look quite however during the high ball he remained to be safe. This week the Storm will try to out muscled Watmough however it will free up the like of Kite, Rose and Hall. If the Storm concentrate too much on Watmough, it doesn't surprise me that B.Stewart will have back in glorious back in attack. Manly need to bring grade A defence, be patience when attack, don't drop the ball and Orford need to practice his kicking game. My tips Manly by 20+"
Simo of Brisbane says: "This will be the semi final of the week. I would like to think that Manly will take the glory on this one, but until the final whistle is blown, I won’t be able to sit still. There is something about a Manly V Storm game that just scares me. For some reason the Storm do lift, and after their last encounter I think they will be out for Revenge. If Manly can be consistent and rip into their forwards they are well on there way to there to a win. I agree that GI is the difference and the lesser of two Evils, (maybe), but go the Mighty Sea Eagles. Mr A, I do however suggest tipping the Sea Eagles and watching one of the best finals in history.... "
Storm fan Crocodile Dundi says: "Dear Mr Adjudicator, Storm's attack on the title has run it's course. With a faltering forward pack (with numbers made up by boys in a man's game), I doubt GI can change the inevitable loss. I'm proud of the Storm, but will cut my losses and head to Big Apple before the Friday kick-off. One things sure, after Friday, Manly won't even be limping. There will be 2 dead warrior clans in the middle - MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). BTW, if Manly is losing, the officials will make sure the result is "NSW centric"!! This time they will make sure the matter is settled way before the judiciary (unlike 2008). See you in 2010. Manly by 1 point! "
Manly fan Geoff of TERRIGAL and Narraweena: "My last post was so 'controversial' that it did not get published. But A remember, Silvertails are now everywhere and so are Bogans. Mrs A and I did share a secret tryst after the 34 point drubbing. (I said Manly by 10, but she understood). I think Storm may be a little stale. Manly looks fresh with players in their best positions - although Farrah and Robertson CAN play at FB if Brett's leg gets hurt. Some better kicking from The Ox last week. Mattai held up. Foran's OK in 5/8 - we are gelling well. With Crocker no longer at Melbourne it'll be the boys from The Time and Tide and The Brookvale and Dee Why Hotels over the latte sippers of Lygon Street. Manly by 10."
Storm fan Daniel Russell of Piggabeen says: "Well... I'm getting quite popular, Judy - how about next year we make it the Adjudicator + Daniel Russell's verdict? Speaking of great teams, Melbourne have been at the top of the pops for the last three years, and I can't see them bowing out of this year's race without a fight. Cooper cronk to wipe the floor with Manly - Melbourne by at least 20." (Adjudicator says: Pigga, this week you are a Storm fan and a Storm fan only. Where is the passion for a single team?)
Sea Eagles fan Geoff of Noosa says: "Well Mr. A I told you that Manly would show up the false pretenders Titans last week and the rest is history. Now let me tell you Mr. A Manly will again put away the winging Storm. My concern hear is the home crowd they all whinge as loud as there teams coach at every close call during a game goes against them, However Manly will have the teamwork and the class to put Melb. Away. It will be a close one though, it will be the best S/F on the lot, however Manly will win it again. And I can’t wait to hear the winging from bellyache. Go Manly"
Sea Eagles fan Phil says: "Adjudicator - Assuming that both the Dragons and Bulldogs knock off the Eels and Knights (and the Broncos beat the Titans) in Week 1 it would appear to me that the Storm and Sea Eagles clash is really a winner takes all on their way through to the Grand Final. You would have to fancy Melbourne or Manly to beat the Titans in week 2, and then face a lack-lustre Bulldogs in the preliminary final. History tells us that the Dragons are chokers although they have the Wayne Bennett factor. That being said it would not surprise, based on the favourable draw, that we could have the monotomy of a third Grand Final Replay between what has arguably been the best two sides over the last three years. Friday night will bring one irresistibly close to that position. I hope you’ve gone the wrong way Adjudicator. Eagles by 7."
Robbie D of the Gold Coast says: "Mr A, Mr A, it’s 2009, not Woodstock about to smoke your 10th joint. Greg Inglis is a brilliant player, but he carved up the Warriors for goodness sake. The try Inglis scored was great, but the players he pushed away are about as handy as a one-legged man at an a*** kicking party. Manly on the other hand flogged a team that we all know YOU thought were specials for the GF. The Titans had the long journey back up my way after they were welcomed to the intensity of finals football. The Storm though, will be much happier knowing that they won’t have any more travelling to do as Brisbane and Newcastle will both win saying ta-ta to the once powerful Storm. This won’t be close, Manly forwards to roll over the Storm third string forward pack and win by 16."
Ernie of Anna Bay says: "Home ground will see the Storm win by 13+. The Storm's key play makers are all hitting top form will send the Manly boy's a big wake up call."
Storm fan JD of Canberra says: "Oh Mr A how you make me like you one week and then despise you the next. All season this has happened. Fortunately, I am a fan this week and you could not have hit the nail any better. With one simple whack of the hammer, you have stated the reason for a Storm victory dance Friday night. Time to shine Mr Inglis. As for Stewart, the influence he has on the Eagles is mouse quiet compared to GI. Go you good things!!!"
Back to top
Gold Coast Titans v Brisbane Broncos, Saturday 6.30pm (EST), Skilled Park, Robina
The Adjudicator says: "In 2006, Justin Timberlake told us he was bringing sexy back. I still don’t know where sexy went. Or that it had even gone at all. But anyone who can dance like that must know what he’s talking about. In a similar vein, Darren Lockyer is bringing the Broncos back in 2009. The man can’t dance and I doubt that emphysemic voice could bust out much of a tune, but his old legs have carried his team to sixth spot and another finals campaign. As for the Titans, all I can say is "it’s about time". The Adjudicator has been waiting for their bubble to burst all season, and finally it has. At least in seasons gone by, they have done the decent thing and crashed out in the regular season instead of breaking the hearts of their fans in September. This week might not be their last match of 2009, but their swansong isn't too far away. Brisbane by 12.
Agree/disagree with The Adjudicator? Tell him, in 100 words or fewer, why your team will win this match. Email The Adjudicator, including your full name and where you're from.
LATEST COMMENTS FROM FANS
Broncos fan Ben from Gold Coast says: "Mr. A I think you may have finally done the right thing in tipping us. And I'm not gonna mention the speedbump the Titans hit last week or the fact that the Broncs have hit consistent form over the last five weeks. Much simpler than that, when u compare the sides on paper, the gap seems quite severe. Just look at the backs; Hunt v an injured Rogers? And don't get me started on Atkins and Delaney...Hodges and Folau to have an absolute field day!!!"
Titans fan Thanks a Million says: "Big A, as a Titan fan, I'm delighted that you have again (and again) made comment that our bubble will be burst. We owe you big time as well that you have picked against us, again. This Titans team is your bogey team when it comes to tipping, you can't take a trick with them. Pick them and they go like a hobbled duck, tip against them and they paly like champions. I think we number up against the Broncos pretty well in the backs, we have more speed and our pigs are far superior to the Brisbane pretenders. Your tipping the Broncos is the luck we need in big games. You and Mrs A will be going for the lemonade but our guys will be drinking the bubbly come Saturday night. The Broncos to go from rolled Gold chocolates to second hand boiled lollies in 80 minutes of intriguing footy."
Titans Fan Karim Of Sydney says: "Dont doubt the titans fellow broncos supporters, with the green light for Mat Rogers, Brett Delaney and Brad Meyers to play in this weeks clash. With these guys in the game its an even harder challenge for the broncos, as the titans are actually in the "zone" and can now focus on what they do best. With that said I think that we will see a close game, with both teams trailing each other right up until the 80 minute mark, but that being said I'll say the titans will come forward by 8."
Broncos fan Paul of Brisbane says: "To Brooke the Titans fan, I think you will find that when the adjudicator said Lockyer had brought the Broncos back in 2009, he was actually referring to the fact that the Broncos were outside the eight just six weeks ago. As for your mob mixing it with the big boys for some time, you only finished 4 points ahead of Brisbane, and the Broncos did lead the comp for the first third of the season. Unfortunately, someone has to go and defend the Origin Shield for an eight week period, but the Titans players just aren't up to it, so Brisbane have to take on your share of the workload as well as their own. Finally my dear, before you can claim to be a POWERHOUSE in any sport, I think you will find that you actually have to have at least ONE trophy in the cabinet first. Titans are the poor cousins to the Broncos, and that will once again be proven on Saturday night. Broncos by 14."
Broncos fan Jacob says: "Broncos r going 2 do the titans broncos eagles final."
Broncos fan David Tepra of Port Moresby: "Yes mate, i agree with you that broncos will run over the titans. NOt because i am th broncos fan but this year is a replica of the recent grand final they won which they kept Melbourn scoreless for the whole 80 minutes. Their defence is fantastic. They are not leaking any points in the second half for five games which is great. If any team can defend for 80 minutes and kick a field goal will win 1-0...so broncos are on this mission........my advice to them is....be impatience with attack and aggressive in defence...points will ensue........go broncos."
Titans fan Brooke of Brisbane says: "Since my last post I have waited eagerly for another chance to correct your mis-understood choice of signalling the Titans demise. Broncos by 12 makes me think that it’s a little more then whiskey that Mrs A has put in your morning coffee. Lockyer bringing back the Broncos in 09’ is laughable remembering that they were out of the 8 only a month and a half ago. I think Lockyer’s hair growing back or Hunt being an legitimate AFL superstar is more likely to occur. The Titans may have hit a speed bump in the form of Anthony Watmough’s massive ego last week, but its the wake up call they needed to kick into gear for the finals. Granted, the Broncos are going into this Saturdays game with some form and consistency on their side but lets not forget the Titans have been mixing with the big boys up the top of the ladder for some time, and that kind of form doesn’t just dis-appear when you play finals football. In conclusion I know you’re a betting man like myself so suggest to put your house on Minichello for the first try, with the Titans going on to win by 4 and show the Broncos who the true QLD power house is. "
Titans fan Reno from The coast says: "Nice one, Adjudicator, Broncos by 12, please. The Titans are not the same team of the last 2 years and will recover to beat The Broncos by 8. Sure the Broncos are on a roll at the moment, but one thing this season has taught us is, all good runs come to an end, and Brisbane’s run will come to an end this week, in fact their going to be knocked out because The Knights are going to beat The Bulldogs as well! No Rogers, no worries. Go Titans!"
Back to top
Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights, Saturday 8.30pm (EST), ANZ Stadium, Sydney
The Adjudicator says: "I'm going to choose a different tact for this game. Normally, the passion of my readers and my immense ego influence my decision. Not this time. I’m going to use something quite foreign to this forum; logic. Here goes nothing. The Bulldogs finished the season second and the Knights finished seventh. So logic tells me to tip the Bulldogs. But they were flogged by 22 points last week while the Knights won 35-0. So logically you’d pick the Knights, right? But the Knights are missing regular five-eighth Ben Rogers and (potentially) influential hooker Issac de Gois. So, using logic, that swings it back in favour of the Bulldogs. But the Belmore boys are missing Brett Kimmorley, arguably their best player this season. So logically it’s got to be the Knights, yes? Confused? Me, too. That’s what using your head does to you. Bulldogs by four."
Agree/disagree with The Adjudicator? Tell him, in 100 words or fewer, why your team will win this match. Email The Adjudicator, including your full name and where you're from.
LATEST COMMENTS FROM FANS
Knights man Brendan from yamba nsw says: "The dogs looked out of sorts without kimorley and ennis cant do it all himself that was proven when they got towelled up, the knights halves are a great combo mullen and dureau. Mullen plays better at 5/8 a class better than rogers who was there only to replace dureau. Also a strong low profile forward pack, fast wingers vuna uate,centres sau madog not the fastest but strong and cunning Kurt Gidly his presance and ability you cant go wrong besides the knights beat the dogs who were full strength early on they'll beat 'em again Knights by 8"
Newcastle fan Jake Field says: "Logic is a remarkable thing. Logic tells us that the Dogs have consistency. Knights have inconsistency. Dogs don't have Kimmorley, Knights got back De Gois. Dogs have a good home record, Knights have a poor away record. Lets all be honest, everyone expects the Doggies to win, so many people want them to win. But you can smell it in the air, you can smell the upsets on their way. Kogorah, ANZ Stadium, Skilled Park. You can't deny it Adjudicator, upsets will make their way into the weekend."
Bulldogs fan Zig of Waramanga ACT says: "Can you smell that. No not that, that. Yes my friends it is September, the dogs have been hanging for this for the past two months. Focus on last weeks performance knights fans, at your on peril. We knew we were finals bound a while ago, and were giving our supporters better odds leading into the finals. By the way, is Benji playing for the knights? No you say. Is A Johns, back? Negative. Then my northern friends stay home on saturday night, crack open a few Bluetongue Ales, and enjoy The Bill, on ABC. Dogs by plenty."
Bulldogs fan Lazadog says: "Mr A, There is some method to your madness. I too will tip the Dogs by 4 but for varying reasons. I believe Holdsworth will turn up given the avalanche of critisism & put in a MOM performance. I think Moore is throwing up a smoke screen....Barba will play from the bench. Dogs have not lost 2 in a row all season even without Kimmorley. I now change my tip.....Dogs by 13."
Bulldogs fan Stuart from Homebush says: "In a last ditch attempt at saving the Bulldogs season, it is rumoured that Ian from Mount Colah has applied for a restraining order against Daniel Holdsworth to ensure he doesn’t set foot within 100 metres of ANZ Stadium this weekend. If successful, similar steps may need to be taken against Kurt Gidley and Jarrod Mullen who ran riot against a struggling Panthers last week. After last weeks lazy display, the Bulldogs will be keen to re-assert their Premiership credentials and secure an all important extra week of recuperation for Brett Kimmorley. I fully expect this to be motivation enough. Bulldogs by 7."
Bulldogs fan Ian Camlett of Mount Colah says: "Those witnessing Daniel Holdsworth’s display against the Tigers will wonder what incriminating photographs of Kevin Moore he must have in his possession to force Tadpole to pick him? Can my beloved Dogs beat the Knights whilst carrying the hapless Holdsworth and thus skip a week, allowing a titanium-cheeked Noddy to return in a blaze of glory and lead us to the Holy Grail? Adjudicator old chum the answer is a resounding YES! Holdsworth is there purely and simply to make the semi-finals seem competitive at least for one week. Dogs by 12"
Knights fan Michael says: "Your head has well and truly confused you. Throw your logic out the window and use a bit of good old fashioned steel. The Knights have finally hit their straps. The Dogs are fading fast and have lost one of their best. The boys from the Steel City will get a roll on this week and keep the dream alive. Should they make the big game in a month’s time, their record is 2 from 2. Captain Courageous to steer the boys home. Knights by 8."
Knights fan Steve of Newcastle says: "Here's some logic for you Adjudicator. Did you see The Dog make Jennings look like a park footballer on Sunday? Did you see Dureau prove why Rogers should be up against Danny Green, not playing footy? You watch The Dog make Blockhead Morris look like a fool this week. The Knights have only one thing on their mind at the moment, and that’s bringing the grand final trophy back up the F3, where it belongs. Dogs have been good all year but without Kimmorley are more like puppies who have lost their mother. Knights by 14!!"
Back to top
The Bennett Smile ... a rare sight. Brett Costello
St George Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta, Sunday 4pm (EST), WIN Jubilee Oval, Sydney
The Adjudicator says: "What a difference a week makes. Seven days ago, the Dragons were gone and the Eels couldn’t be stopped. One game later, the Red V is on track for their first premiership in three decades and the Eels have realised that one player against 17 doesn’t always work. Last Friday night’s clash was such a letdown that the highlight for me came after the match, when the rarest of rare sights was spotted: the Wayne Bennett smile. Last seen after the Broncos’ grand final win in 2006, the slight elevation of one side of his mouth and the absence of contempt that normally engulfs The Master’s face is truly a wonder to behold. Loyal Adjudicator followers should tune in to the Dragons’ match on Sunday. Not to see the Eels get thrashed again, but to see something as unique as a well-behaved NRL player. The Wayne Bennett smile.
Dragons by 14. Agree/disagree with The Adjudicator? Tell him, in 100 words or fewer, why your team will win this match. Email The Adjudicator, including your full name and where you're from. LATEST COMMENTS FROM FANS
Dragons fan Jarrad of NQ says: "Hello Mr. A, I’d firstly like to ‘shut down’ the Eels argument that Friday night’s smashing was due to some clever planning on Anderson. What rubbish. Firstly without the upset victory of the Tigers over the Dogs and Newcastle’s win over Penrith, Parra probably wouldn’t have played Dragons again until a potential Grand Final. Not only that had Parra gone on with the job on Friday they would have also avoided a rematch with Dragons(or possibly an equally formidable Dog’s side) – so either Parra fans leave the speculating to Hayne, or Anderson to leave fanciful coaching tactics to a more capable coach(i.e. Bennet). Dragon’s forwards will grind the Eels to submission and the combination of Soward’s kicking game and Morris’ running game to bring in the points. Benne’s boys 32-6."
Eels fan Chris of Hornsby says: "Hi Mr A, Think we’ll get the great game on Sunday everyone thought we’d get Friday night. The Dragons had to win after what they copped in the media during the week and 3 straight losses while Parra had nothing to play for. After 7 weeks of sudden death footy they suddenly got to the last round with their finals spot already secure and the motivation was gone. If they won, they would have been playing the Dragons at Kogarah this week in a do or die final. As it turned out they lost and they’re playing the Dragons at Kogarah this week in a do or die final. The Dragons showed their hand, Parra didn’t. They now know what it’s like to play in front of a hostile crowd at Kogarah and with Hindy and Grothe back and everything to play for again we’ll see the real Eels stand up. Parra by 8."
Parra Fan Kyle says: "Hi Adjudicator I believe, and keyword being I BELIEVE, Parra wont disappoint come Sunday. We know how the Dragons will play and know what to expect. It can only go up from here. The Dragons had a massive win over us but now they will have to raise the bar. Bennett is smart and knows how to coach. Anderson is a risky but played a smart move from what I BELIEVE on Friday by letting the Dragons show who their "danger players" and key moves. We know what's coming to us. The Dragons don't. Its gonna be a good game and like Cayless said we've won 7 in a row so 4 will be a lot easier to achieve. Eels by 7!"
Saints fan Jason of Wollongong sings: "Adjudicator, Oh, when the saints go marching in, Oh, when the saints go marching in, Now we have a proper coach, The saints will go marching in."
Dragons fan Neal Fraser of Adelaide says: "No matter how bad things get over there, it can’t get any worse than being stuck in Cretin City (Adelaide) come NRL finals time. Every Sunday night the sports presenters say “it’s been a big weekend in sport”, and not one mention of an NRL score! Last Saturday morning I went to pick up their pathetic excuse for a paper which had an extra 15,000 pages on the Crows finals chances. Eventually, 15,523 pages in from the back – a single paragraph – Dragons defeat Eels! The Dragons have to win to make this place less depressing. Go Dragons! Adelaide Crows suck!"
Dragons fan Stephen of Mortdale says: "Wendell, whether or not you took my advice last week, a) we saw less of you in the media circus and b) the boys played like a team that was starving for a win. So this week keep the boys hungry and get your plates ready for some BBQ eel."
Eels fan Ben Kuch of ACT says: "Well that was fairly disappointing on Friday… Even if Tony Archer and Gavin Badger weren’t wearing their Dragons Jerseys you’d have to think the Dragons still would’ve won it. But I would like to thank both ref’s for providing us with some of the most humorous decisions I’ve seen in 15 years of watching the game. Don’t worry Fui, even those of us who can understand English couldn’t follow the repeat penalties for ‘tackling’ the opposition with the ball, who would’ve thought that was illegal down there at WIN stadium! No wonder they wanna keep the game there. And better yet, Morris only has to cross the line now, doesn’t need to bother putting it down! He’d be unreal at American Football… But don’t be so easily fooled A-Man, something tells me there was more to that game than meets the eye. If Hindmarsh is really injured, with a toe injury, I’ll eat my entire left foot. Think we’ll be seeing a different side come Sunday, hopefully instead of a smile that could scare the life out of small children we’ll see Bennett in tears… Though that will probably look even more hideous. Lastly lets get off the one man side thing, lets face it HayneTrain would be a one man side whichever team he played for, that’s what happens when you are that much better than any other player in the league. Eels by 7points."
Gazza of Lane Cove says: "Hey Mr Adjudicator, I believe the Eels will be much improved on their slack performance last week and can give it to these Dragons. In fact with Hindy and Grothe back and the team playing at a bit more like 100% rather than the 50% of last week, they will beat them quite well. I honestly believe that Ando sent the boys out last week with instructions to play at about 50% potential and give the Dragons some false hope in case we play them again the following week. Hindy and Grothe could have played last Friday if not for some foxing by Ando and they bring so much enthusiasm back into the team upon their return. Hayne will be playing behind a lot more go forward this time around and not just going through his paces like last Friday nights training session. Eels by 13."
Saints fan Merv King of western australia says: "26 rounds and we are finally here, the business end of the season .The dragons will win and this will be their springboard to the 2009 premiership .With the puppetmaster bennett pulling the strings we will see a vastly different dragons outfit to the underperforming dragons teams in the past . the key to the game is not the forwards, but hornby's ability to provide the go forward execution in its gameplan .we have sowards spontonaity to provide the spark and the right pack of forwards to dominate, what goes missing occasionally is the game plan execution benny comes up with . Hornby will come of age this finals series steering a dragons juggernaut hellbent on delivering the goods on the first sunday in october .GO Stgeorge/illawarra !!!!!!!!!"
Back to top
