Different derby ... Eels and Panthers will battle for eighth. Gregg Porteous

25 August 27, 2009

Fox Sports commentator Laurie Daley casts his eye over round 25 of the NRL as a teams stake their claims for top eight spots.

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos, Friday 7.35pm (EST), Dairy Farmers Stadium
Despite their residence outside the top eight, the Cowboys are second only to the Bulldogs in terms of points scored. Head to head the Broncos still hold a distinct advantage, the Cowboys with only four wins against their cross-sate rivals and no luck since the opening round of 2007 while in round one this season it took a 77th minute Peter Wallace field goal to separate the sides. The Cowboys fell away to let Newcastle Knights rally from behind and steal victory in round 24 and any such capitulation can expect similar treatment from a Broncos side who are the leagues second-most disciplined outfit and prone to second half runaways.

Laurie says: The Cowboys are struggling with injury concerns to a couple of key players, like Aaron Payne and Matt Bowen. Those players are key components to the make-up of their team and I think they’ll struggle against Brisbane, who have found some form. Israel Folau is back into the team and I think they are building some momentum at the right time of the year. They’re getting more control back into their game, they aren’t making any mistakes and they’re well disciplined. So I think they’ll get the cash.

Parramatta v Penrith, Friday 7.35pm (EST), Parramatta Stadium
These two teams are even-Stevens on the ladder, splitting eighth spot by only five points in their for-and-against differential. The teams put on 72 points between them in round 17 in a match remembered as much for its woeful defence as it was for its stunning attack. In fact history shows us the points generally flow when the two sides meet and with the Eels winning seven straight in the wake of their earlier loss to the Panthers, their defence has shored up to be far superior to that of the Panthers. With only the Storm and Dragons missing less tackles per game and the Panthers also running third in terms of points scored, the two should offset each other nicely.

Laurie says: The western derby is always a tightly contested contest. Parramatta have been in irresistible form and are looking to make it seven in a row. Penrith need to defend a lot better than what they have in recent weeks, particularly through the middle, and stop Parramatta’s offloading ability. The Eels offload the ball as well as anyone in the competition and their second phase plays bringing the likes of Jarryd Hayne and Krisnan Inu into the game. If Penrith can defend well and be committed for 80 minutes, they may be able to win. But I think Parramatta have a lot of confidence at the moment and they’ll be hard to stop.

Gold Coast Titans v Wests Tigers, Saturday 5.30pm (EST), Skilled Park
While the Titans won both clashes in their debut season it was the Tigers who swept the Queenslanders in 2008. This is the first time the two have met this season and for the Tigers it represents the first of two must-win games if they are to feature in finals calculations. The Tigers lead the league in tries scored and linebreaks made and were on a six-game winning streak until Parramatta broke that run last start. The Titans have only dropped one game at home this year and after locking up a top-four spot will now be hoping two more wins can see the steal the minor premiership away from St George Illawarra and the Bulldogs.

Laurie says: I think the Titans will win this given the Tigers have plenty of injury concerns and Bryce Gibbs is out suspended. I think if the Titans are going to challenge in the final series, they’ll have to really improve on what they’ve shown the past couple of weeks. And now that they’ve wrapped up a home semi-final, maybe the shackles will come off and they start to play to style of football that we know they can.

Melbourne Storm v Sydney Roosters, Saturday 7.30pm (EST), Olympic Park
The Storm have averaged less than 20 points a game in attack this season but can potentially break the shackles against the league's second-worst defence. More emphatically the Roosters are scoring even less points per outing while only the Dragons possess a defence more miserly than the Storm. Melbourne are coming off back-to-back losses and will be looking to secure a home final with back-to-back wins, a feat they haven't accomplished since round 15. The Roosters haven't won at Olympic Park since 2004 and their cause won't be helped by the fact no team in the league concedes more penalties nor does any other outfit earn less from the referee. 

Laurie says: The Roosters have been disappointing this season, there’s no doubt about that. The Storm need to get their act together and fast, because they’re struggling at the moment. But you’d think that at Olympic Park and with plenty to play for given there is there’s a top-four position on the line, they’ll win this one.

South Sydney v St George Illawarra, Saturday 7.30pm (EST), ANZ Stadium 
The Dragons haven't scored a try since the first half of their round 23 defeat to Canberra and have only totalled 14 points in their last two outings. In fact the Rabbitohs are averaging more tries per outing and are matching it with the Dragons in terms of points per game. St George Illawarra still possess the league's premier defence however as well as the lowest error rate in the competition. The Dragons are dealing with consecutive losses for the first time under Wayne Bennett but South Sydney have only ever come up trumps twice against the joint venture club, in their initial meeting in 1999 and then not again until 2007.

Laurie says: The Dragons are another team that have to get themselves together pretty quickly and I think they can do that against Souths. They need to get back to being disciplined and holding the football like they have done all season. It’s a great opportunity to hit a bit of form heading into the finals against Souths, who have nothing to play for. They’ve got plenty of injuries and the Dragons could use this game as a chance to kick-start their season.

Manly v Cronulla, Sunday 2pm (EST), Brookvale Oval
It was after the Sea Eagles defeated the Sharks 32-26 in round 19 that Ricky Stuart declared his side a bona fide bogey team that would once again trouble the defending premiers when the sides met again. Since then the Sharks have failed to even threaten an opposition team while Manly steadied their finals push last week defeating Melbourne Storm at Olympic Park. Cronulla won the last meeting at Brookvale Oval back in round one of last season and while many believe they were the better team last time out, the Sharks simply have nothing left to play for while for Manly it represents a must-win game before the intensity of finals football begins. 

Laurie says: The main talking point of this game will be the return of Brett Stewart. He has picked a good game to return, with Manly back at Brookvale Oval against the struggling Sharks. They would have gained plenty of confidence out of last week’s victory over Melbourne and I can see nothing but a Manly victory in this one. The Sharks will be as competitive as they can be, but with Manly back at home and looking for a top-four spot, they will be too strong.

Bulldogs v Warriors, Sunday 3pm (EST), ANZ Stadium
A third-string Bulldogs outfit got the job done across the Tasman when they beat the Warriors 18-14 in round 18 during the height of the Origin season. With the addition of Ben Hannant the Bulldogs return to full strength on a home ground that has seen them suffer only the one loss there in 2009. Meanwhile the Warriors have only managed two away wins this season. The competition's leading point-scorers, The Bulldogs also lead the way in linebreaks however the Warriors are the top team for tackle busts. The Dragons' recent freefall has left the Bulldogs two wins away from a potential minor premiership as they lament the two points surrendered for breaching the interchange rule in round two.

Laurie says: It’ll be Hazem El Masri’s last game at home and there’s a big crowd expected at ANZ Stadium. Defensively they will have to turn up and play well because, as they showed last week, the Warriors can be a very dangerous team. So the Bulldogs can’t just turn up expecting to win, but if they have a hard-nosed attitude and commitment in defence, I think they can win.

Canberra v Newcastle Knights, Monday 7pm (EST), Canberra Stadium
The Knights' four-match losing streak that followed Brian Smith's signing with Sydney Roosters has now been arrested with back-to-back wins since Smith officially decided to step aside. They now find themselves back in the top eight and in control of their own destiny. The last time the away team won in battles between the two was Newcastle's 70-32 field day at Canberra Stadium in 2006. The Knight's totally dominated the Raiders in their earlier meeting in 2009, a 23-4 result that was the last game prior to Smith's defection. The Raiders' biggest weapon may be Bronson Harrison who has helped Canberra to the second-highest offloads per game in the league.

Laurie says: The Raiders have a good Monday night record and also a good record at Canberra Stadium against Newcastle. They’ll have to make sure that the Knights second phase play and their abilities on the edges with their big forwards is hut down, so the Raiders will have to be very committed on the edge. But if they do that and stop Isaac De Gois out of dummy-half, I think they can cause an upset.