Fox Sports commentator Laurie Daley casts his eye over round 23 of the NRL and separates the contenders from the pretenders.
South Sydney v Gold Coast Titans, Friday 7.35pm (EST), ANZ Stadium
When the teams met in round eight it was Gold Coast Titans who prevailed 22-14 at Skilled Park, but only after South Sydney failed to capitalise on an avalanche of possession. While both teams enjoyed wins last weekend it is Souths who will probably feel more confident. Gold Coast were efficient against the struggling Warriors but they have only put back-to-back away wins together once this season. Nothing splits the teams in previous clashes – they are two apiece – and there can be no differentiation in motivation either. The Rabbits can ill afford a loss after moving to within a point of the top eight, while the Titans can virtually assure themselves of a maiden home-ground finals appearance if they win. The Rabbits have lost captain Roy Asotasi with a knee injury, but the Titans are without key forwards Aaron Cannings, Luke O’Dwyer and Ashley Harrison.
Laurie says: The Titans have finally learnt how to grind out a win as opposed to just trying to blow teams off the park. South Sydney have been very impressive over the last five weeks and none more so than last weekend against Manly. But I just think the loss of Roy Asotasi will be too much for the Rabbitohs to overcome. I’m backing the Titans to grind out another win on the back of a strong performance from Scotty Prince.
North Queensland Cowboys v Bulldogs, Friday 7.35pm (EST), Dairy Farmers Stadium
In the their second-last home game of the season North Queensland Cowboys need to find a way to beat the Bulldogs if they are progress to this year's finals. Sitting in 10th and with Parramatta, South Sydney and Wests Tigers enjoying late-season surges, time has almost run out for the Cowboys. They face a full-strength Bulldogs who are clinging to their own minor premiership aspirations. This road trip is ideal semi-final practice for the Dogs because they are playing a team who are desperate. When these sides met in round 16 it was the Dogs who cruised to a 30-18 victory at ANZ Stadium, but the Cowboys had won the last four meetings prior to that. Halfbacks Johnathan Thurston and Brett Kimmorely will square off again in an Origin re-match and the winner will go along away to ensuring their side gets the points.
Laurie says: Interesting game with the Cowboys having such a tough run into the finals. Taking on the second-placed Bulldogs is always a difficult assignment, but North Queensland will be banking on winning the rest of their home games. The Cowboys’ forwards rolled up their sleeves against the Storm and I think they are capable of reproducing that form to run over the Bulldogs. Ben Hannant is a huge loss for the visitors on what is arguably the toughest road trip in the NRL. The Johnathan Thurston-inspired Cowboys to pull off a minor upset.
Sydney Roosters v Manly, Saturday 5.30pm (EST), Sydney Football Stadium Manly are looking to restore credibility this weekend against16th-placed Sydney Roosters. The 2008 premiers have missed the mark mentally in their previous two losses - to the Tigers and the Rabbitohs – games they needed to win if they were to achieve a top-four spot. The Roosters have been competitive in recent weeks and the return of Anthony Minichiello playing at five-eighth has proved a worthy experiment. But the Chooks will have to overcome a terrible record against the Brookie boys; they have lost six of the last seven, including a 38-18 demolition in round 13. Manly have recalled promising youngster Kieran Foran to start at five-eighth, allowing Jamie Lyon to move to his preferred position of centre. The Roosters will be no pushover; their resolve has seemingly grown stronger in recent weeks as Brad Fittler’s time at the club draws to a close.
Laurie says: Manly have been promising to come good for a while now, but unfortunately that elusive 80-minute performance has failed to materialise. The Sea Eagles have got to find some consistency if they are to be any chance of defending their title. Kieran Foran into five-eighth is a step in the right direction and they should be too strong for the Roosters. The Tri-Colours have put in over the last few weeks and will certainly put up some stern resistance, but the Sea Eagles have too much to play for to let this one slip.
Canberra v St George Illawarra, Saturday 7.30pm (EST), Canberra Stadium
The Green Machine have produced two gallant performances in recent weeks, first annihilating the Broncos, followed by a narrow loss to the Dogs. Young halfback Josh McCrone has been a revelation for the Raiders, and they will be further buoyed this week by the return of giant forward Tom Learoyd-Lahrs. The Dragons don’t look like being stopped – but this fixture looms as a danger game against an in-form team who are playing with nothing to lose. Further adding to Canberra’s cause for optimism is their 4-1 head-to-head record over the Dragons in recent times. The visitors have lost Beau Scott due to suspension but the two-try return of Jeremy Smith against the Panthers shows that the club have more depth than a well. It should be Dragons by how many, but you just never know in the NRL.
Laurie says: The Dragons are looking to make it eight in a row and you would be a brave man to bet against them. Canberra are always a different team at home, but it’s hard to see the Raiders stopping the juggernaut that is the disciplined Dragons. St George Illawarra don’t give you an inch and will have too much strike power all over the park on their way to making it nine on the trot.
Parramatta v Warriors, Saturday 7.30pm (EST), Parramatta Stadium
The Warriors accounted for Parramatta 26-18 in round one but they’ll be flat out repeating that performance if the last month is anything to go by. The Warriors provided another inept display in losing to the Titans last Sunday, while the Eels have sprung to life with four straight wins. The Eels’ top-eight scalps include Melbourne Storm, Bulldogs and Newcastle Knights, suggesting this could be a long night at Parramatta Stadium for the Warriors, who continue to underachieve despite the availability of a talented playing roster. If the Eels win and results go their way it is possible that they could slip into the top eight after the round is over. Unfortunately for Warriors fans, their side’s main motivation at this stage of the season is to keep the Roosters and Sharks at bay for the wooden spoon.
Laurie says: Parramatta are killing it at the moment. Jarryd Hayne is arguably the best player in the game and Fuifui Moimoi is setting the world on fire. Everything is coming together at the right time for the Eels and they will be too strong for the Warriors. The Kiwi boys are struggling at the moment and it’s hard to see them turning around their poor run against the red-hot Eels. Parramatta to continue their charge.
Cronulla v Wests Tigers, Sunday 2pm (EST), Toyota Stadium
Wests Tigers are one of several teams in the NRL threatening to prove it's not how you start but how you finish. Their five straight wins, characterised by electric pace and ball movement, has catapulted the serial underachievers into seventh on point’s differential. Ricky Stuart's team have been working overtime on the tackling bags this week, but there is little evidence to suggest they can get near the Tigers, who have won five of the last six matches played between the two. Cronulla’s rookie halfback Scott Porter, who has impressed in 10 games this season, should revel at the chance to take on Tigers debutant No.7 Robert Lui. But while the Sharks will see Lui as an opportunity to shake up the visitors' attack, the youngster could not ask for a better combination to start his career alongside – Robbie Farah to the left, and Benji Marshall to the right!
Laurie says: West Tigers are in the eight for the first time in a long time and on a roll. Injuries and suspensions have played havoc on the Sharks all season and it’s hard to see them getting back in the winner’s list against the in-form Tigers. West Tigers are shooting for six straight and I think they will do it in style.
Brisbane Broncos v Penrith, Sunday 3pm (EST), Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane's scrappy win over Cronulla may have prolonged their finals chances, but certainly not saved them. A loss to the Panthers would throw them straight back on the endangered species list, while Penrith have an opportunity to cement their threadbare hold of fifth position. On paper, it appears the home side will have their work cut out containing the visitors' forward pack, who are now playing with their all-star back row of Luke Lewis, Frank Pritchard and Trent Waterhouse all available again. Brisbane Broncos have won four of the last five between the two, including a methodical 38-18 result at CUA Stadium in round six. At that stage the Broncos were among the most potent attacking teams in the competition, a mantle now owned by Penrith, led by the raw speed of Michael Jennings. If Brisbane are to avoid missing the finals they can’t afford to lose this one.
Laurie says: The Broncos were patchy against the Sharks and need to prove they can match it for the full 80 minutes against better quality opposition. They will get that chance against the fifth-placed Panthers in an important clash for both sides. The bottom line is the Broncos haven’t shown enough quality and I think the Panthers will be too strong up there at Suncorp. Penrith have plenty of speed out wide and that will prove the difference on Sunday afternoon.
Newcastle Knights v Melbourne Storm, Monday 7pm (EST), EnergyAustralia Stadium
When Newcastle met Melbourne at EnergyAustralia Stadium in round 25 last year, they achieved a 17-16 upset against the eventual minor premiers. It will take a titanic effort on Monday night, as that result was their only win against the Storm in their last seven clashes. It appeared the Knights would sneak another upset in round 17 down at Olympic Park, but a 77th-minute match-winner from Storm centre Will Chambers snuffed that out. Melbourne’s lead up to this game will be punctuated by the omission of superstar Greg Inglis, which will rob them off some vital spark in attack. After falling out of the top eight last week it doesn’t getting any easier for the Knights, but their desire to end a three-match losing streak and the omission of Inglis could just sway this game in the Novocastrians' favour.
Laurie says: The loss of Greg Inglis is a massive blow for the Storm and I think the Knights can get them up there at EnergyAustralia. This is a must win game for Newcastle and the players will be out to silence a lot of critics over the Brian Smith saga. The Knights haven’t won a game since Smith announced his coaching switch and that is something that is no doubt agitating the club. It’s all on then line for the Knights and I think they will finally stand up and be counted.
