With only seven rounds left this season, desperation will be high heading into round 20. Laurie Daley gives his preview
South Sydney v Sydney Roosters, ANZ Stadium, Monday night, 7pm (EST)
Sydney Roosters were used to dominating this grudge match but that all changed in round one this year when South Sydney handed out a 52-12 shellacking. There was a lot to like about the Rabbitohs in the early rounds, where high aspirations were set, and they probably haven’t lived up to them since. Still, the Bunnies match up well in this game as the Chooks haven’t really recovered from that loss. Even when they led the Warriors with five minutes to go last Sunday, they somehow found a way to lose; conceding two soft tries against their fellow wooden-spoon rivals. How the mid-week announcement of Brian Smith coming to coach at Bondi affects the club could have an advantageous or adverse affect: players might look to raise their intensity to ensure a position in next year’s squad, or they could just as easily start focusing their attention on their end-of-season trip, knowing that what Brad Fittler thinks won’t matter in 2010. If their attitude reflects the former, they are still in with a shot in this game.
Laurie Daley says: The Rabbitohs have played some good football over the last two weeks while the Roosters haven't got a lot to play for. With John Sutton playing so well, I don't know if the Roosters can reach the levels they showed last weekend against the Warriors. There is a lot of improvement in the Souths side and if they can repeat the play they showed against the Broncos last weekend, then they will be far too good for the Roosters.
Gold Coast Titans v Brisbane Broncos, Skilled Park, Friday night, 7.35pm (EST)
Even considering their current plight, it’s hard not to see the Broncos playing a part, albeit minor, in the finals series. For one, they have the benefit of a favourable draw in the remaining seven rounds. For another, they cannot possibly play as badly as they have over the last six weeks. Their revival probably won’t start this weekend – better teams than the Broncos have come to Skilled Park and failed. But with two games against the lowly Raiders and another against the Sharks, surely it’s not too far away. It’s lucky they won so many games at the start of the season because they are playing more like a team destined for the wooden spoon at the moment. They have lost five of their last six, seven of their last 10 and conceded in excess of 40 points more times than they would like to remember. The Titans continue to hang grimly onto the shirt-tails of the Bulldogs and Dragons and should be eyeing a comfortable top four finish. Four homes games in the final seven rounds should at least ensure that.
Laurie Daley says: I think the Titans will make it nine from nine at home. Brisbane have been very poor defensively over the last couple of months and with no Lockyer, Thaiday or Folau they will find it very hard. The Titans are a definite chance at a top four finish. They play a very productive game and use the football more than other teams. With Prince and Campbell showing the way, the Titans will have too much for the Broncos.
Manly v Newcastle Knights, Bluetongue Stadium, Friday night, 7.35pm (EST)
“Time are tough at the moment, this side has got plenty of character and I promise you we will hang in there. There’s a long way to go.” Those prophetic words were uttered by Des Hasler after Manly lost to Newcastle at EnergyAustralia Stadium in April, their fourth defeat in a row to start the season. His Sea Eagles have hung in and enter this match in eighth place and with a real chance of pushing for an even higher finish. With four of their remaining games against teams below them on the ladder, and a home match against notorious bad travellers Gold Coast up their sleeve, the Manly title defence looks to be well and truly alive. Newcastle, though, can never be discounted, even taking into account a week of upheaval surrounding the departure of coach Brian Smith. They may have lost four of their last seven and keep relying on a superb defence to keep them in games, but they currently sit in fifth and have four of their last six games at home. Only once this season have they been beaten by more than 14 points.
Laurie Daley says: This depends on how the Knights react to the news that Brian Smith is leaving. They certainly are a very capable side and could well finish in the top four, so hopefully this won't disrupt their momentum. Manly were lucky to win the game against the Sharks last week. They tended to just crab across the field in attack and nobody really changed the angle, so that's something they are going to have to work on. I still think Manly can win this but Newcastle are a very good team who will challenge them all the way.
Bulldogs v Parramatta, ANZ Stadium, Saturday, 5.30pm (EST)
Five points behind with 14 points left to play for probably means Parramatta aren’t going to make the finals again this season. But they sure aim to make it difficult for those teams above them in the remaining rounds. Just ask top eight hopefuls Newcastle, Brisbane, North Queensland and Melbourne how hard the Eels are to beat! With scalps of this quality to their credit, it’s strange to see them languishing in 13th place – but then you look at their dire away record (2-6) as well as their poor form against teams occupying the bottom eight positions and you quickly find out why. The Bulldogs, along with the Titans, are the two teams remaining with perfect home records and with five of their remaining matches at fortress ANZ Stadium, you would have think a top two berth is practically guaranteed. They have scored 151 more points than the Eels this season, conceded 99 less and, of course, hammered their opponents 48-18 back in round six. You really can’t have more in your favour than that!
Laurie Daley says: You have to like what the Bulldogs have been doing this season. They've got plenty of depth, Kimmorley and Ennis have formed a wonderful combination and they look strong out on that left-hand side with Goodwin and Morris back. I'm sure Parramatta will rise to the challenge. They were good on Monday night against Melbourne and Jarryd Hayne has been terrific but I think the Bulldogs have got so much momentum going for them at the moment and they should win.
North Queensland Cowboys v Penrith, Dairy Farmers Stadium, Saturday night, 7.35pm (EST)
After a rough road trip, there’s nothing like the comforts of home – especially for the North Queensland Cowboys. The Cowboys have somehow maintained their position in the top eight for much of the season despite an ugly away record that has yielded just two wins from eight attempts. They have, in fact, not won away since beating the Warriors in round 10 - and have not won a game in Sydney the entire season. But it’s a completely different story at Dairy Farmers Stadium. After early hiccups against Melbourne and the Titans, the Cowboys have won six straight in Townsville against the likes of Newcastle, St George and Manly. But they only have three games left at home and can’t afford to slip up against the Panthers. They may be fifth at the moment but they are far from guaranteed a top eight finish. The Panthers continue to defy expectations but they need to string together a succession of wins if they are to taste finals football for the first time since 2004. Since picking up 10 points from rounds seven to 11, the Panthers have only won three of seven.
Laurie Daley says: I'm sure the Cowboys will be relishing returning home. Both teams have plenty of injuries and the Cowboys are using their fourth-choice hooker. Travis Burns is the No.9 this week so there will be plenty of pressure on Thurston and Bowen to perform. Penrith are certainly confident - they are one of those teams that when they get it right they can trouble you from anywhere. The Cowboys have a tough run coming up - in the next five games they play teams currently in the top eight - so this is a must-win for them.
Melbourne Storm v Cronulla, Olympic Park, Saturday night, 7.35pm (EST)
After a tough loss to Parramatta on Monday night, Melbourne Storm return to their Olympic Park safe house looking to restore confidence – and their position in the NRL top four. They couldn’t have a better opportunity to do that than against Cronulla, who have lost three games in a row. The Storm appeared jaded against the Eels – not surprisingly – after a number of their players backed up from Origin III. While they will be largely expected to return to the winner’s page here, they will have to overcome a Sharks side that will be fired up after losing a tight game against the Sea Eagles. Coach Ricky Stuart blamed officialdom after that much, but they will need the bounce of the ball here as well. The teams have matched up closely in head-to-heads; Melbourne have won two of the last three, but two of those games were decided by field goals. So what should be a walk in the park for Melbourne could just turn into a tricky fixture.
Laurie Daley says: Melbourne are always very difficult to beat at home - they are such a gritty team and you can never write them off. Cameron Smith and Brett Finch returning provides them with a lot more options and takes the pressure off Cooper Cronk. I think this will be close as the Sharks have certainly got plenty of self-belief but it would be a brave man to tip against the home team with their fabulous Olympic Park record.
Canberra v Wests Tigers, Canberra Stadium, Sunday, 2pm (EST)
Two of the NRL’s most inconsistent teams will both view this contest as a game they should win if they are to be taken seriously. The Tigers, particularly, will fancy themselves for a late-season charge if they can get the points in what is always a tough road fixture at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders were far below their best in their loss to Penrith on Saturday night, but a return to the capital usually brings an extra gear to their game. Without captain Alan Tongue and New South Wales forward Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, the home side will need their often-errant five-eighth, Terry Campese, to assert more control on the game. His kicking game in general play will be of particular importance in the battle for field position, as the Tigers have three strong options in Robbie Farah, Benji Marshall and John Morris. The Tigers haven’t won three in a row all year, and they won’t get a batter chance to achieve that this season.
Laurie Daley says: I'm going for the Raiders given that they have home-ground advantage. You don't know what to expect from the Raiders - one day they are brilliant - the next day they are poor. The last couple of weeks they have been poor but back playing at home they are a better team. If they get out of the block and put some points on then they could be in for a good afternoon - especially considering the Tigers have had their issues defensively. In cold conditions I think the Raiders can prevail.
Warriors v St George Illawarra, Mt Smart Stadium, Sunday, 2pm (EST)
Talk about sliding doors, the competition’s biggest disappointment meets the biggest improver. Having said that, when the sides met earlier in the season in round eight, the Dragons only scraped over the line with a thrilling 12-11 win in Wollongong. Questions remained over the Dragons attack at that stage of the season, but those doubts have been firmly eradicated since. The Dragons, who are also ranked first in the NRL for defence, have scored 135 points in their last four matches, at an average of 33.75. In comparison, the Warriors have scored 70 at an average of 17.5. The forecast looks bleak for Warriors fans, but with a champion like Stacey Jones at halfback leading the team in front of a Mt Smart Stadium crowd, you can never write the Kiwi-franchise off.
Laurie Daley says: This is a no-brainer! The Dragons welcome back a lot of players and are nearly at full strength for this. It would be a massive surprise if the Warriors won this. The Dragons are a tough side and their attack is starting to come along. They also defend so well and work hard for one another. To me, the Warriors have been the biggest disappointment of the season and they will not carry my money in this game.
